Bitcoin Daily Commentary – 2 July 2025

Bitcoin dips to $108.4K as ETF inflows slow and long positions unwind but market structure hints at potential resilience.

Bitcoin's price is down 1.8% over the past 24 hours, trading at $105,400. Despite the geopolitical upheaval of the last few weeks, with the U.S. strike on Iran, an event that surprised both geopolitical scholars and Polymarket punters, Bitcoin has proven itself once again to be a resilient store of value.

Bitcoin's dominance is higher over the past 24 hours, rising to 64.7% compared with 64.4% yesterday.

Sentiment has deteriorated over the past 24 hours with the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index falling to 63 but remaining in Greed territory.

Bitcoin pulled back to the $105,000 region on Tuesday after failing to cross above the $109,000 mark on Sunday and Monday. It appears that Bitcoin may have formed a local top or may enter a period of consolidation as it has been sandwiched between the downtrend line and the moving averages, indicating a possible range expansion in the next few days. Buyers are expected to defend the $104,500 level because a failure here could see Bitcoin sink to the psychological support at $100,000.

Meanwhile, data from Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin’s range-bound trading price between $100,000 and $110,000 is the result of profit-taking. The data shows mid- to long-term holders (LTHs) leading the sell-off, with coins aged 3–5 years realizing $849 million, while coins in the 7–10 years cohort cashed out $485 million. The 1–2 year cohort realized $445 million.

Daily realized profits hit $2.46 billion, with the seven-day average rising to $1.52 billion, surpassing the year-to-date average of $1.14 billion but below the $4–$5 billion peaks seen in Q4 2024.

Despite LTHs selling, there is a silver lining since the data suggests this activity could be net positive. The Spent Output Age Bands metric highlights when coins of varying holding periods are spent, while Binary Coin Days Destroyed simplifies the data by flagging whether LTHs moved coins on a given day. The consistent appearance of older coin movement is a positive signal in a bull cycle.

Despite the selling pressure, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stable, meaning the market is absorbing it due to steady demand. It is also worth noting more activity from coins held for one to three years, reflecting profit-taking from previous cycle buyers. It suggests a transition of market leadership from older holders to newer ones, suggesting the shift signals strength, not weakness.

Lastly, Bitcoin could be set to follow the S&P 500’s decade-long trend of positive July performance. The SPX recorded its highest monthly close in June, and historically, July has been Bitcoin’s strongest month.

Since 2013, BTC averaged a 7.56% return in July, with eight gains in 12 periods, including a 24.03% surge in 2020. Q3 often sees robust risk-asset returns, and Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 suggests that new all-time highs above $112,000 could occur as early as this month.

In fact, once Bitcoin attains new highs, the crypto asset could exhibit significant volatility. Bitcoin has been trading in a 195-day sideways movement since December 18, 2024, with only 36 days of notable price action. The analysis points to a long “Cycle 4 Ranges Expansion” phase. This slow cycle aligns with historical patterns of brief price breakouts masking a broader uptrend.

Since 2023, every major Bitcoin breakout has unfolded over a 30- to 40-day window, typically followed by a period of sideways consolidation. If history repeats, the next breakout could drive a swift surge toward the $140,000–$150,000 range before entering another cooling phase.

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In corporate news:

· Vanadi Coffee, a small café chain based in Alicante, Spain, has officially approved an ambitious plan to invest up to €1 billion (about $1.17 billion) in bitcoin. The decision, made during a shareholder meeting on June 29, is a big change for the company which has just 6 locations and has been losing money. Despite reporting a net loss of €3.3 million in 2024 and only €2 million in annual revenue, Vanadi is betting its future on bitcoin. “Investing in Bitcoin is a long-term commitment to a new decentralized financial model,” Vanadi said in an official statement. “Vanadi Coffee is diversifying its business into Bitcoin investment and management and other cryptocurrency-related areas.”